__Part
4 Concepts & Terms:__

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Coincidence-
An occurrence of two or more events at one time that happen merely by chance.

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Highly
coincidental events are often not so unusual, when viewed in the context of all
possible random occurrences at all times.

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Events
that may be rare to one person may be more common among a larger group of
people.

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Diagnostic
testing- Used to detect many medical conditions and also useful in drug
testing.

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A
diagnostic test for a condition is said to be positive (POS) if the test states
that the condition is present.

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A
diagnostic test for a condition is said to be negative (NEG) if the test states
that the condition is absent.

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False
positive- The probability that a test gives a positive result P(POS|S^{c})
when in actuality, the state is *not* present.

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False
negative- The probability that a test gives a negative result P(NEG|S) when in
actuality, the state is present.

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Sensitivity-
The probability that a test gives a positive result P(POS|S) where S implies
that the state is present.

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Specificity-
The probability that a test gives a negative result P(NEG|S^{c}) where
S^{c} implies that the state is *not* present.

__Extension(s):__

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For
homework, have your students watch the news or search the internet for news
headlines and stories that report ÒcoincidencesÓ. Have each student reflect on the significance of their
findings, and encourage them to decide whether or not the happening or event
truly is a coincidence. What if
there were more opportunities for the event to happen? Did the media consider this possibility?