Assignment 12


Investigating the Increase in First Class Letter Postage

Over the Last Eighty Years

 

by Patricia Johnson


Below is a table showing the first class postage rates for the US Mail from 1919 to 1999.

 

year rate(in cents)
1919 2
1932 3
1958 4
1963 5
1968 6
1971 8
1974 10
1975 13
1978 15
1981 20
1985 22
1988 25
1991 29
1994 32
1999 33

 

A graph of this data is shown below.

 

The above graph seems to predict exponential growth of the cost of first class postage over the past eighty years. By using a graphing calculator the following exponential function was obtained as a best representation of the data.

where y = postage rate in cents

x = number of years

a = 1.385016973

b = 1.039947669

We will use this function to generate a new set of data. This data will then be used to plot the graph of the function. This data can then be used to predict:

a) when the cost of a first class postage stamp will reach 64 cents and $1.00.

b) how soon to expect the next 3 cents increase.

Year No. of years Rate (in cents)
1919 0 1.385016973
1932 13 2.3046469817656
1958 39 6.38121007015968
1963 44 7.7617646650452
1968 49 9.44099787550744
1971 52 10.6182355992007
1974 55 11.9422680448462
1975 56 12.419333815811
1978 59 13.967952771551
1981 62 15.7096755366937
1985 66 18.3743996641933
1988 69 20.6655808211155
1991 72 23.242458990717
1994 75 26.1406589348405
1999 80 31.7961077304521
2000 81 33.0662881175565
2001 82 34.3872092503353
2002 83 35.7608981033015
2015 96 59.5055854806489
2016 97 61.882694913081
2017 98 64.3547643262968
2018 99 66.9255871501767
2025 106 88.0384911211008
2026 107 91.555423623666
2027 108 95.212849381739
2028 109 99.0163807733876
2029 110 102.971854378101
2030 111 107.085339933113

 

From the graph it appears that:

a) the cost of a first class postage stamp will reach 64 cents in about the year 2017 and $1.00 about the year 2028.

b) the next 3 cents increase will occur in the year 2002.


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