Part 4 Concepts & Terms:

á       Coincidence- An occurrence of two or more events at one time that happen merely by chance.

o      Highly coincidental events are often not so unusual, when viewed in the context of all possible random occurrences at all times.

o      Events that may be rare to one person may be more common among a larger group of people.

á       Diagnostic testing- Used to detect many medical conditions and also useful in drug testing. 

o      A diagnostic test for a condition is said to be positive (POS) if the test states that the condition is present.

o      A diagnostic test for a condition is said to be negative (NEG) if the test states that the condition is absent.

á       False positive- The probability that a test gives a positive result P(POS|Sc) when in actuality, the state is not present.

á       False negative- The probability that a test gives a negative result P(NEG|S) when in actuality, the state is present.

á       Sensitivity- The probability that a test gives a positive result P(POS|S) where S implies that the state is present.

á       Specificity- The probability that a test gives a negative result P(NEG|Sc) where Sc implies that the state is not present.

 

Extension(s):

á       For homework, have your students watch the news or search the internet for news headlines and stories that report ÒcoincidencesÓ.  Have each student reflect on the significance of their findings, and encourage them to decide whether or not the happening or event truly is a coincidence.  What if there were more opportunities for the event to happen?  Did the media consider this possibility?