Becoming a Teacher of Statistics

Portfolio

by

Susan Sexton

Media Resource

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Probability and Statistics for Secondary Teachers

STAT 6070

University of Georgia

Fall 2007

Instructor: Christine Franklin

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Berenson, A. & Carey, B. (2007, September 14). Experts question study on youth suicide rates. The New York Times, pp. A14.

URL: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/09/14/us/14suicide.html

This New York Times (Times) article is a reaction to a study, published in The American Journal of Psychiatry, associating the effects of lower prescription rates of antidepressants for children and adolescents on the youth suicide rates. While the Times article provides details of “experts” who critique the validity of the journal article and a response from the journal article’s lead author, it does not provide enough detail for the general reader (who does not have prior information about the journal article) to make intelligent decisions on whether or not the “experts” are making valid and reasonably statistical critiques.

The major critique discussed in the Times article discusses the importance of considering lurking variables and the feasibility of running short-term trial (observational) studies on suicide which is considered to be “rare and uniquely personal events that can be driven by many factors.” However, the lurking variables, identified as confounding variables, leave the reader to wonder whether or not the actual study under discussion includes the lurking variables in their analyses (although, in reality, the actual study does not).

While the journal article does claim that as the prescriptions rates decreased, the suicide rates increased, the authors do make a disclaimer that, “Because the period of observation in this study was brief, our findings must be considered preliminary” (Gibbons, Brown, Hur, Marcus, Bhaumik, Erkens, Herings, Mann, 2007, p. 1359). However, the authors’ use of data available from the trial observations is problematic, as pointed out by the “experts” cited in the Times article, due to the fact that part of their claims are made on data that has not yet been collected for 2005.

As stated earlier, without prior knowledge provided by the journal article, the reader can only use the information provided by the newspaper article in an attempt to make a decision about the results of the study. Thus the Times’ article provides a unique opportunity to expose students to an actual published study, make their own statistical arguments for their opinions on the analyses and results of the study and compare their opinions to those of the “experts” cited in the newspaper article.

The journal article is six pages of content and uses many of the statistical ideas presented at the secondary level. Therefore an AP statistics student, with a fair amount of coursework completed, should be able to read the article and make intelligent statistical decisions about the analyses and results of the study. Which article is presented first to the students is a matter of preference. Reading the Times article first and having lingering questions to be addressed by reading the journal article would be one way to motivate the discussion. On the other hand, having students read the journal article first, react, and then read the reactions presented in the Times article, is an alternative method for motivating discussion.

Regardless of the method chosen, the statistical information, analyses, and discussions provided in both articles are a great way for students to engage in statistical reading, arguments, and discussions to enhance their statistical understanding of both the material and how it is used in the professional community.

Reference

Gibbons, R., Brown, C., Hur, K., Marcus, S., Bhaumik, D., Erkens, J., Herings, R., & Mann, J. (2007). Early evidence on the effects of regulators’ suicidality warnings on SSRI prescriptions and suicide in children and adolescents. The American Journal of Psychiatry, 164(9), 1356–1363.

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